Ag Market Insights is dedicated to providing timely information to help you consistently get the most money for your crops. Our team painstakingly goes through mountains of information and data and distills insights into a format you can consume in a few minutes. We have even recently spoken to President Biden about the low crop prices, and he has assured us that the prices will be way up very soon. However, it would help if you took that with a grain of salt, as he also guaranteed that he would win his senate seat again in the upcoming election.
In this edition:
Market Actions: Insights on marketing actions to consider.
Harvest Headlines: Significant events impacting the markets.
Expert Predications: Overview of where notable experts predict the market is going.
AI Models: Our advanced artificial intelligence (AI) predictor models.
The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We recommend consulting with a commodities broker and financial advisor before making any commodities decisions.
Market Actions
Despite low prices, many experts recommend selling all 2023 bushels, most of 2024, and even 50-75% of 2025 bushels. If you are selling far ahead, look at some put options and the money strike prices.
The outlook for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat is still bleak. We are near the bottom and will remain there for a few weeks.
The negative sentiment or trading environment will stay the same for a while.
Our AI futures models predict that the prices have bottomed out and will steadily increase throughout the month (see AI models in the last section below).
The volatility looks like it will continue. We are big fans of the fundamentals, but you must at least look at the technicals in volatile markets. The moving averages (see section below) are almost all saying sell.
Moving Averages
Harvest Headlines
USDA reports record corn and soybean crop yields – 560 million bushels! This is even higher than anticipated.
Global weather is relatively calm for this time of year. Corn and soybeans are expected to be in a bumper crop.
USDA’s Crop Production report from Monday showed winter wheat yield at 53.2 bpa, with record yields reported out of several northern states, notably OR, MT, SD, MI, and WI. The national spring wheat yield was a record 52.6 bpa, though NASS did reduce it by 0.9% from July. Both ND and MN yields were tallied at a record.
Despite the firming of crude oil prices, oilseed prices fell in the wake of other oilseeds, particularly soybean prices in the USA. Soybean prices are also down.
On a positive note, China is buying more soybeans, most recently buying 4.9 million bushels for 2024/2025.
An additional 80k armed IRS agents just started. An IRS audit team will be visiting you soon. Ensure all your expenses are fully justified, including that “farm RV.”
Expert Predictions
CORN
SOYBEAN
WHEAT
AI Models
for CME Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat
Our AI models ingest and process billions of data points to create models with an accuracy of 95%+. Our models are as accurate as any model you can find. Like with any model, they are only sometimes wholly accurate, especially in times of high volatility. The models are some information that can help inform your marketing decisions.
The prediction below was made on August 9.
1 Month Corn Outlook (to Aug 30)
90% Confidence – ~$390 | High ~$418 | Low ~$300
1-Month Soybean Outlook (to Aug 30)
90% Confidence – ~$1,220 High ~$1,290| Low ~$1,190
1-Month Wheat Outlook (to Aug 30)
90% Confidence – ~$540 High ~$558| Low ~$523
Extended Commentary
The recent USDA report has painted a picture of record-breaking yields, and while this might sound promising on the surface, the implications for market prices are less encouraging. As we enter a critical phase of the harvest season, the pressure on crop prices continues to mount, driven by increased supply and subdued demand signals. Our AI models suggest a potential recovery in prices, but the market volatility we’ve witnessed recently should give us pause.
Corn, soybeans, and wheat have all faced a mix of market pressures, with technical indicators, such as moving averages, signaling potential further declines. Selling into these lows requires careful consideration, especially as market fundamentals suggest we might need a quicker turnaround. Considering the current market sentiment and predictive models, the recommendation to sell a significant portion of 2023, 2024, and even some 2025 bushels reflects a cautious approach.
The broader economic context is also crucial. Geopolitical factors and policy shifts, such as the IRS's increased scrutiny of farm expenses, add another layer of complexity, making it more critical than ever to have your financials in order. This environment demands reactive strategies and proactive planning, ensuring that your farm operations remain resilient in the face of ongoing challenges.
As you make your decisions for the upcoming months, keep a close eye on technical and fundamental indicators. The market’s focus will likely shift again, and staying ahead of these changes will be vital to navigating the path forward. Our insights are here to support you, offering the information needed to help guide your decisions in these uncertain times.
