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Prices as of Closing 8/28/24
We got some complaints from the “Red Guys” that we only give love to love to John Deere. Here you go Red Guys: some classic RED POWER:
In this edition:
Market Actions: Insights on marketing actions to consider.
Harvest Headlines: Today’s crop markets saw minor price fluctuations with no major news driving significant changes.
AI Models: Our advanced artificial intelligence (AI) predictor models are suggesting that prices are going to continue to yo-yo up and down over the next few weeks.
The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We recommend consulting with a commodities broker and financial advisor before making any commodities decisions.
Market Actions
No new major market action triggers.
Volatility continues to be problematic and is making it very difficult to make market decisions. The volatility seems as though it is likely to continue.
Due to volatility, a lot of experts are recommending selling all 2023 bushels, most of 2024, and even 50-75% of 2025 bushels. If you are selling far ahead, you might want to look at some put options as well as the money strike prices.
Harvest Headlines
Grain markets showed a mixed performance today, with corn and soybean futures declining while wheat futures moved higher.
Barge freight continues to surge as U.S. River water levels decline. St. Louis barge freight is offered at 725% of tariff up from 330% at the start of the month.
The corn market was unable to build on yesterday’s gains and instead consolidated, despite reports of two flash sales. Rallies remain constrained by the influx of old crop supplies into the market and the anticipation of a large upcoming harvest.
Brazil’s soy exports for the month of August are projected at 7.74 mmt vs. 8.16 mmt forecast a week ago, according to Anec. Meal exports 2.03 mmt vs. 2.39 mmt. Corn exports 6.61 mmt vs. 7.0 mmt.
Despite a surge of buying activity early in the session, driven by another flash sale to China, the soybean market couldn't sustain yesterday’s strength and ended the day lower. Better-than-expected overnight rains contributed to the selling pressure throughout the day.
France's harvest will be the smallest since the 1980s after excessive rains this season.
Despite a stronger US Dollar and declines in both corn and soybeans, all three classes of US wheat posted gains today. The upward momentum was bolstered by Matif wheat futures, which closed higher for the second consecutive session. Notably, the September contract traded above its 10-day moving average for the first time since August 9, although it ultimately closed just below that level.
The USDA has ruled that BioCeres Crop Solutions’ genetically modified wheat, called HB4, does not require regulatory oversight. This drought-tolerant and herbicide-resistant variety is on the verge of entering the global market, with approvals already secured in Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. While HB4 could eventually boost wheat supply, potentially putting downward pressure on prices, it may offer substantial benefits in drought-prone areas.
AI Models
for CME Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat
Our artificial intelligence (AI) models ingest and process billions of data points to create models that have accuracy of 95%+. Our models are as accurate as any model you can find. Just like with any model, they are not always completely accurate, especially in times of high volatility. The models are designed to be a bit of information that can help inform you marketing decisions.
AI Short-Term Corn Forecast
AI Short-Term Soybean Forecast
AI Short-Term Wheat Forecast
Extended Commentary
As we close out another day in the grain markets, the theme of volatility continues to dominate the landscape. Despite some flashes of activity, the markets have been mainly in a holding pattern, with minor fluctuations and no major catalysts driving significant price movements. Our AI models suggest that this yo-yo pattern of prices is likely to persist in the near term, making it all the more challenging to make decisive marketing moves.
The mixed performance across the grain markets reflects the complex dynamics at play. While corn and soybean futures faced pressure from the influx of old crop supplies and better-than-expected weather conditions, wheat managed to post gains, supported by global factors such as higher Matif wheat futures and ongoing concerns about the size of France's harvest. The USDA's approval of BioCeres Crop Solutions’ genetically modified HB4 wheat adds another layer of complexity to the wheat market, with potential long-term implications for supply and pricing.
Another factor that could influence the cost of moving grain in the coming weeks is the surge in barge freight rates, driven by declining river water levels. This logistical challenge may further complicate market dynamics, particularly as we head into the peak of the harvest season.
Given the ongoing volatility, many experts recommend selling some of your bushels across 2023, 2024, and even 2025 to manage risk. Exploring options like put options and money strike prices may provide additional protection in these uncertain times. Staying informed and ready to adapt to market shifts will be vital to navigating this unpredictable environment.
With no significant market action triggers today, the focus remains on closely monitoring developments and being prepared to respond quickly to any opportunities or risks that may arise. The path forward may be uncertain, but by closely monitoring market trends and utilizing the tools at your disposal, you can position yourself to make the most of the current conditions.
