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Prices as of Closing 8/28/24
Happy Friday!
In this edition:
Market Actions: Insights on marketing actions to consider.
Harvest Headlines: Today’s crop markets saw minor price fluctuations with no major news driving significant changes.
Monthly Technical Indicators: All technical indicators for the month suggest sell.
The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We recommend consulting with a commodities broker and financial advisor before making any commodities decisions.
Market Actions
No new major market action triggers.
Volatility continues to be problematic and is making it very difficult to make market decisions. The volatility seems as though it is likely to continue.
Harvest Headlines
According to Ukraine's agricultural minister, adverse weather conditions are expected to cause a substantial decline in the nation's total grain and oilseed yield for 2024. The official projected a 15% decrease compared to the previous year, though specific figures were not provided. As of August 23, the country had harvested 32 million metric tons of these crops.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 9 1/2 in SRW, up 19 1/4 in HRW, up 14 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 13 3/4; Soymeal up $5.90; Soyoil up 0.91.
The corn market saw reduced selling pressure today, as traders closed out short positions. This shift was influenced by price increases in wheat and soybeans, along with robust export figures. The activity was partly driven by the approaching end of the month and the impending First Notice Day for September contracts tomorrow.
Corn futures ended today higher. CU is near 3.70. Deliveries are expected to be high. CZ is near 3.94. CH25 is near 4.12. Farmers have been reluctant sellers of cash but could sell new crop at 4.00. Weekly US new crop export sales were better than expected. US cash export prices are a discount to Brazil and Ukraine. USDA est World 2023/24 corn crop at a record 1,223 mmt vs 1,159 ly. US is 389 vs 346. China is 289 vs 277 ly. World trade is est at 200 mmt vs 180 ly. US 57 vs 42, Brazil 50 vs 54, Ukraine 29 vs 27 and Argentina 35 vs 25. USDA est World 2024/25 corn crop at a record 1,219 mmt. US is 383 China is 292. World trade is est at 191 mmt. US 58, Brazil 49 vs 54, Ukraine 24 and Argentina 36.China 2024/25 imports are est at 23 mmt with some concerned imports may drop below 15 mmt. USDA announced today new US new crop sorghum sales to China.
Soybean futures ended today higher. SU is near 9.73. Deliveries are expected to be high. SX is near 9.91. SH25 is near 10.22. Farmers have been reluctant sellers of cash but could sell new crop at 10.00. Weekly US new crop export sales were better than expected. US cash export prices are a discount to Brazil. USDA est World 2023/24 soybean crop at a record 395 mmt vs 378 ly. US is 113 vs 116. Brazil is 153 vs 162 ly. World trade is est at 177 mmt vs 171 ly. US 46 vs 53, Brazil 105 vs 95. China imports are est at 111mmt vs 104 ly USDA est World 2024/25 soybean crop at a record 421 mmt. US is 125. Brazil is 169. World trade is est at 181 mmt. US 50, Brazil 105. China 2024/25 imports are est at 109 mmt with some concerned imports may drop below 100 mmt.
The European Commission has revised its projections for wheat production in the 2024/25 season, lowering the forecast from 120.8 million metric tons to 116.1 million metric tons.
Technical Indicators – Monthly
The monthly technical figures suggest a strong sell for corn and soybeans, and wheat.
Corn – Strong Sell
Soybeans – Strong Sell
Wheat – Strong Sell
Extended Commentary
As we wrap up the week, seeing some positive momentum in the grain markets is encouraging, even if the gains have been modest. The combination of traders closing out short positions and strong export figures has helped lift corn and soybean prices today, offering a glimmer of hope in a challenging market environment.
Despite these gains, it’s important to remain cautious. The monthly technical indicators continue to signal strong sell recommendations for corn, soybeans, and wheat. This reflects the ongoing volatility and uncertainty that have characterized the markets recently. With the end of the month approaching and the First Notice Day for September contracts looming, we can expect continued market fluctuations.
The global outlook also presents mixed signals. Ukraine’s agricultural minister has projected a significant decline in the nation’s grain and oilseed yields due to adverse weather conditions, which could impact global supply dynamics. Meanwhile, the European Commission has revised down its wheat production forecast for the 2024/25 season, further adding to the market's complexity.
On the domestic front, U.S. cash export prices remain competitive, particularly against Brazil and Ukraine, contributing to better-than-expected new crop export sales. However, with deliveries expected to be high and farmers still hesitant to sell cash crops, the market remains in a delicate balance.
As we move into the next week, it will be crucial to monitor these developments closely. The combination of global supply concerns, strong export activity, and technical sell signals creates a complex environment that requires careful navigation. Staying informed and being prepared to act on any shifts in the market will be vital to managing risk and capitalizing on opportunities as they arise.
