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Prices as of September 9th, 2024 – 20:00CDT
Don’t you just hate it when your tractor has tire issues!
In this edition:
Harvest Headlines: Corn and soybeans rebounded after Friday's losses, while wheat ended the session with mixed results.
Market Actions: The one-week technical analysis of corn is strongly bearish.
One Week Soybean Technical Analysis: Still bearish but leveling off and dovetailing with our AI fundamental models’ predictions of prices leveling off and then slowly creeping up.
The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We recommend consulting with a commodities broker and financial advisor before making any commodities decisions.
Harvest Headlines
Grain markets saw a modest recovery to start the week, with corn and soybeans bouncing back after Friday's losses, while wheat closed mixed. Weather concerns in the U.S. and Brazil influenced market movements, along with short-covering in some commodities.
Corn
The corn market managed to resist lower prices, thanks to support from nearby soybean markets and external factors, despite Friday's weakness. Traders are closely watching the progress of the maturing U.S. crop along with the hot, dry weather in South America.- Drought conditions persist in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt, especially in Nebraska, South Dakota, and Minnesota, keeping pressure on yields.
Early harvest results from southern Illinois and Nebraska show mixed yields, with some fields exceeding expectations.
USDA export data showed solid sales, primarily to Mexico and Japan, adding support to prices.
Brazil's first-crop corn planting is underway but is being challenged by dry conditions.
Ethanol production remained strong, with weekly output up 5% from last year, boosting demand for corn.
Weather concerns in Brazil and Argentina are also impacting planting decisions for the upcoming corn season.
Soybeans
Boosted by warm weather accelerating soybean maturity and a flash sale of 132,000 mt to China, the soybean market rebounded from Friday's decline to close in positive territory at the start of the week. While soybean meal ended mostly higher and bean oil saw a sharp increase, December Board crush margins dipped by 2 ¼ cents but remained solid at 142 ¼ cents.
Chinese demand for US soybeans remains uncertain, adding pressure to prices.
Brazil's record harvest continues to weigh on global prices.
US weather forecasts are favorable for late-season soybeans, reducing fears of crop damage.
Expectations of strong demand for biodiesel are providing some support.
Wheat
The wheat market ended with mixed results, as Chicago wheat contracts showed the most strength, while Minneapolis contracts were weighed down by a Stats Canada report revealing a significant increase in Canadian wheat stocks. KC futures struggled to follow Chicago's lead, closing mid-range with slight losses.
Mixed performance across wheat markets, with Chicago wheat gaining slightly, but Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts posting losses.
Russian wheat exports continue to be priced competitively, maintaining pressure on global markets.
Weather challenges in key wheat-producing regions like the Black Sea, U.S. Southern Plains, and Argentina, where dryness persists.
Spring wheat harvest in the U.S. is nearing completion, with yield reports showing variability.
U.S. winter wheat planting is in the early stages, though dry conditions could impact progress.
Export sales were mixed, with cancellations in old crop sales but solid new crop sales, particularly to Taiwan.
Market Actions
No new major market action triggers.
Volatility continues to be problematic and is making it very difficult to make market decisions. The volatility seems as though it is likely to continue.
Our artificial intelligence (AI) models are showing to be accurate; high volatility; corn, soybean, and wheat prices gradually climbing. See models below.
Soybean
Weekly Technical Analysis 9/10/2024
This analysis presents a composite analysis that we have developed to evaluate technical indicators. We have back tested this model with thousands of scenarios. The back testing has proven the model to be accurate 65.6% of the time. This is significantly better than other technical analysis techniques. This is a weekly analysis that analyzes if there are any changes in trends.
The near-term soybean outlook is bearish. This suggests only trade short positions (for sale) on SOYBEAN if the price remains well below 1,096.00 USD. The sellers' bearish objective is set at 956.00 USD. A bearish break of this support would revive the bearish momentum. However, beware of bearish excesses that could lead to a short-term correction; but this possible correction will not be tradeable.
The force of this analysis is 6.3, which is strong but not at level 8 or above. Soybeans have been on a downward trend, but that trend seems to be leveling off. This aligns with out AI fundamental models that suggest that soybeans are going to be volatile but will level off and gradually increase. Keep an eye on the $1096 and $956 resistance levels. Hopefully, we will push the $1096 level, which could send soybeans on a long-term bullish run.
Extended Commentary
As we head further into September, the grain markets show signs of recovery following a pullback last week. Corn and soybeans rebounded from Friday’s losses, helped by short-covering and weather-related concerns, while wheat markets ended the session with mixed results.
In the corn market, despite a slight rebound, traders are closely watching the hot, dry conditions in the U.S. Corn Belt and South America, which continue to impact crop development. Early harvest results from southern Illinois and Nebraska have been mixed, adding to market uncertainty. U.S. export data, primarily to Mexico and Japan, has provided some support, but Brazilian supplies weigh heavily on global prices. Ethanol production remains a bright spot, with weekly output up 5% from last year, further boosting demand.
Soybeans saw a more robust recovery, supported by a flash sale to China and warm weather accelerating crop maturity. However, the uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand continues to add pressure to prices. Brazil’s record harvest remains a significant factor in keeping global prices in check. Still, U.S. domestic crush demand and expectations for solid biodiesel demand are helping to support the market. Weather forecasts remain favorable for late-season soybeans, reducing fears of crop damage and providing optimism as harvest approaches.
Wheat markets presented a mixed performance, with Chicago wheat showing strength while Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts posted slight losses. Global competition, particularly from Russia, continues to challenge U.S. wheat prices, but weather concerns in the Black Sea, U.S. Southern Plains, and Argentina are keeping the market on edge. The U.S. spring wheat harvest is nearing completion, but yield reports remain variable, adding to the uncertainty.
The volatility across these markets continues to make planning challenging, but our AI models suggest that prices will gradually climb after this recent bounce back. Corn’s technical analysis remains strongly bearish in the short term, while soybeans show signs of leveling off. Wheat continues to navigate global supply challenges, but potential weather impacts could create further shifts in the coming weeks.
As always, staying informed and closely monitoring these developments will be crucial as the markets remain highly sensitive to weather and global supply issues. The coming weeks will be critical in determining the next moves for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
