Ag Market Insights is dedicated to bringing you timely information to help you consistently get the most money for your crops. Our team painstakingly goes through mountains of information and data and distills insights into a format that you can consume in a few minutes.
In this edition:
Harvest Headlines: Relatively movement or significant events.
Market Actions: No new market triggers. An unexpected drop in projected supply or a rise in demand could prompt managed funds to cover more of their large short positions, driving prices higher. However, a sustained rally for corn, soybeans, or wheat is unlikely to occur before the harvest is completed.
One Week Soybean Technical Analysis: Soybean prices are still bearish but leveling off and dovetailing with our AI fundamental models’ predictions of prices leveling off and then slowly creeping up.
Market Overview
Grain markets ended the day relatively unchanged with minimal fresh news to drive significant price movements. Traders remain focused on upcoming harvest reports and the influence of weather patterns on yield expectations. Global macroeconomic concerns and cautious trading ahead of key USDA reports kept market sentiment mixed. Attention is also being paid to demand trends, particularly export sales and geopolitical factors.
Prices as of September 17th, 2024 – 20:00CDT
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The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We recommend consulting with a commodities broker and financial advisor before making any commodities decisions.
Harvest Headlines
Corn Price Events
Corn futures closed slightly higher, supported by short covering in the market.
Harvest activity is increasing, which is putting a cap on price gains. According to the USDA's crop progress report released Monday afternoon, 9% of the corn crop had been harvested as of September 15, ahead of the five-year average. The condition of the crop was rated 64% good to excellent, exceeding expectations. Although the condition of the corn is less influential on the market as the crop reaches maturity, it is still in notably strong shape for this time of year.
Anticipation of the USDA report limited aggressive trading, keeping prices near unchanged.
The harvest pace is slower than average due to wet field conditions, delaying supply.
Weak ethanol margins are limiting demand for corn, pressuring prices.
Export demand remains sluggish, especially with competitive pricing from South America.
Ukraine’s export challenges continue to have mixed effects on global corn trade.
Seasonal pressure from the nearing harvest and yield reports is expected to shape price trends.
Soybean Price Events
Soybean futures remained flat to slightly lower as harvest advances in the Midwest.
The Crop Progress report released yesterday showed the good to excellent rating for soybeans dropped by one point to 64%, as anticipated by the market, though it remains well above last year's 52%. Currently, 44% of the crop is dropping leaves, up from 25% the previous week, and 6% of the crop has been harvested. Illinois and Iowa reported the highest crop ratings, at 72% and 77%, respectively.
Traders are awaiting updates on demand from China, which has been slow in recent weeks.
Brazil’s early planting progress is being watched, with favorable weather aiding planting.
A lack of strong export sales reports weighed on soybean prices.
The approaching U.S. harvest is keeping a lid on price gains as new crop supplies hit the market.
Weather conditions in key production areas, including Argentina and the U.S., remain a significant focus.
Soy oil and meal demand fluctuations are also contributing to price uncertainty.
Wheat Price Events
Wheat futures saw modest gains driven by ongoing concerns about Black Sea export reliability.
As of September 15, the USDA reported that 92% of the U.S. spring wheat crop had been harvested, slightly ahead of the 90% average and last year's pace of 91%. They also noted that 14% of the U.S. winter wheat crop has been planted, which is 1% higher than both last year's rate and the five-year average.
France's agriculture minister has lowered the soft wheat production estimate by 0.5 million metric tons (mmt) to 25.85 mmt, marking a roughly 27% drop from last year's total. This decrease is due to poor weather conditions that resulted in lower yields and a reduced planting area. In contrast, SovEcon raised its forecast for Russian wheat production by 0.4 mmt to 82.9 mmt, aligning closely with the USDA's estimate of 83 mmt.
European wheat is facing competition from Russian wheat, which is weighing on global prices.
Uncertainty over Australian wheat production due to drought is lending some support to prices.
Lower-than-expected export numbers continue to challenge U.S. wheat prices.
U.S. winter wheat planting is advancing, and weather outlooks remain critical for the crop’s progress.
Egypt’s tender results and its preference for cheaper Russian wheat put additional pressure on U.S. wheat.
Market Actions
No new major market action triggers.
Volatility continues to be problematic and is making it very difficult to make market decisions. The volatility seems as though it is likely to continue.
Our artificial intelligence (AI) models are showing to be accurate; high volatility; corn, soybean, and wheat prices gradually climbing. See models below.
Soybean – Weekly Technical Analysis
9/17/2024-20:00CDT
This analysis presents a composite analysis that we have developed to evaluate technical indicators. We have back tested this model with thousands of scenarios. The back testing has proven the model to be accurate 65.6% of the time. This is significantly better than other technical analysis techniques. This is a weekly analysis that analyzes if there are any changes in trends.
All elements being clearly bearish, it would be possible to trade only short positions (for sale) on SOYBEAN as long as the price remains well below 1,032.50 USD. The sellers' bearish objective is set at 912.85 USD. A bearish break of this support would revive the bearish momentum. The sellers could then target the support located at 824.25 USD. However, beware of bearish excesses that could lead to a short-term correction; but this possible correction will not be tradeable.
The force of this analysis is 6.6, which is pretty strong but not at level 8 or above. Wheat has been on a downward trend, but that trend seems to be leveling off. This aligns with out AI fundamental models that suggest that wheat are going to be volatile but will level off and gradually increase. Keep an eye on the $387.67 and $435.67resistance levels. Hopefully, we will push the $1,032.50 level, which could send soybeans on a bullish run.
A technical analysis in Weekly of this SOYBEAN chart shows a sharp bearish trend. 92.86% of the signals given by moving averages are bearish. This strongly bearish trend is supported by the strong bearish signals given by short-term moving averages. There is no crossing of moving average by the price or crossing of moving averages between themselves.
The technical indicators are generally neutral. They do not provide relevant information on the direction of future price movements.
No additional result has been identified by Central Indicators, the scanner specialised in technical indicators.
No signals are given by Central Patterns, a market scanner specialised in chart patterns, resistances and supports.
The Central Candlesticks scanner, specialised in Japanese candlesticks, did not identify any signals.
Pro Trend Lines
Extended Commentary
The grain markets remained relatively quiet, with minimal price changes. Corn futures closed slightly higher, buoyed by some short covering. Harvest activity continues to gain pace, putting pressure on potential price gains. According to the USDA's crop progress report, 9% of the corn crop has been harvested as of September 15, ahead of the five-year average. Despite favorable crop conditions rated at 64% good to excellent, harvest delays due to wet field conditions limit supply and keep prices in a narrow range.
Soybean futures also saw minimal movement, ending flat to slightly lower. The USDA’s Crop Progress report showed a slight decline in the good to excellent rating, now at 64%, which is still significantly better than last year’s 52%. As harvest progresses, the market focuses on demand signals, particularly from China, which have been slow in recent weeks. Additionally, the favorable weather aiding Brazil’s early planting progress adds further pressure on soybean prices. Export sales remain muted, keeping prices in check.
Wheat futures achieved modest gains amid ongoing concerns about Black Sea export reliability. The USDA reported that 92% of the U.S. spring wheat crop has been harvested, slightly ahead of the average pace. However, lower-than-expected export numbers are still challenging U.S. wheat prices. On the global front, France’s wheat production estimates have been revised downward due to adverse weather conditions, while Russia’s production forecast has been raised. This mixed global outlook is contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
No primary market action triggers have surfaced, with volatility persisting as a critical challenge in market decisions. Our AI models indicate high volatility in corn, soybeans, and wheat markets, aligning with our technical analysis, which signals prices leveling off before gradually climbing. The market remains indecisive, with traders monitoring USDA reports, weather developments, and export trends for future guidance.
Soybean prices, in particular, are still facing a bearish outlook. Technical analysis shows that a break below $1,032.50 could trigger further declines. Despite the current stabilization around $1,008.00, moving averages and technical indicators strongly suggest a bearish sentiment. Market participants should closely monitor support and resistance levels as the market navigates through the harvest season and prepares for potential shifts in demand dynamics.
