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After a day of choppy trading that pushed December corn to new highs, the corn market ended with slight losses, likely due to hedge pressure and producer selling weighing on prices. The soybean market also experienced volatile two-sided trading, with November prices reaching their highest level in two months before pulling back due to weakness in soybean meal. Meanwhile, soybean oil extended its rally, finishing 1.50 cents higher for December, boosted by news of proposed legislation in Congress aimed at extending incentives and protections for U.S.-based sustainable aviation fuel. The wheat complex closed the day near its lows after a session of fluctuating prices, likely pressured by profit-taking, weakness in the soybean market, and a decline in Matif wheat futures.

Prices as of September 24^th, 2024 – 20:00CDT

Technical Analysis Overview

Wheat futures for December 2024 are currently trading at $576.50, with a daily range between $576.38 and $589.12. The 52-week range for wheat has been between $519.50 and $720.00, indicating significant volatility in the past year.

The RSI is at 42.71, which is below the neutral level of 50, indicating that the market is leaning towards the oversold territory. However, it is not yet in the deeply oversold range, suggesting some potential for further downward movement.

The MACD value is 0.78, showing a buy signal. This suggests a short-term opportunity for a bullish movement, but the overall trend remains bearish.

Both indicators are in the oversold region, which may signal a potential for a short-term price correction or consolidation before any further downward movement.

The CCI is at -136.95, which indicates a strong sell signal. A CCI below -100 generally suggests that the asset is in a downtrend and may continue to fall.

The simple and exponential moving averages (MA) for multiple periods (5, 10, 20, 50 days) all indicate a sell signal. This consistent bearish signal across different time frames supports the view that the market could continue its downward trend in the short to medium term.

The overall sentiment for US wheat futures is 'Strong Sell,' with both technical indicators and moving averages signaling a bearish outlook. This sentiment is reinforced by a recent decrease in prices across various wheat markets.

Based on the current technical outlook, wheat prices are likely to face continued downward pressure in the near term. However, the presence of some oversold signals suggests a potential for short-term corrections. Farmers and traders should monitor upcoming reports, such as the Grain Stocks report, for further insights into potential price movements.

In-depth Technical Analysis 

This analysis presents a composite analysis that we have developed to evaluate technical indicators. We have back tested this model with thousands of scenarios. The back testing has proven the model to be accurate 65.6% of the time. This is significantly better than other technical analysis techniques. This is a weekly analysis that analyzes if there are any changes in trends.

While the one week technical indicators for wheat are still bearish, their strength has weakened. Moreover, some of the key pivot points have moved into a bullish direction. , it would be possible for traders to trade only short positions (for sale) on WHEAT as long as the price remains well below 631.25 USD. The sellers' bearish objective is set at 549.00 USD. In case of crossing, the next objective would be the support located at 495.00 USD. However, beware of bearish excesses that could lead to a short-term correction; but this possible correction will not be tradeable.

The force of this analysis is 5.2, which is a SINGFICANT drop from the 6.5 of last week. Level  – again, suggesting a bullish trend could be coming.  This dovetails with our fundamental models that suggest that soybeans are going to be volatile but will level off and gradually increase.

After initially showing gains, corn prices ended with slight losses, impacted by producer selling and harvest pressure. Despite early yield reports and stable ethanol production, sluggish exports due to competition from Brazil and Ukraine are adding downward pressure. Weather conditions are favorable for the ongoing harvest, which could further suppress prices.

Soybean prices experienced volatility, with the market pushed higher by fund buying to cover short positions, spurred by concerns over dry weather in Brazil. Strong demand from China and stable domestic biofuel policies are supporting prices, though a dip in soybean meal pressured the market. Strong crush margins are keeping processors engaged in cash markets.

Wheat futures fell on profit-taking, despite concerns over global supply from Canada, Australia, and Russia. U.S. wheat harvest progress and favorable weather conditions for planting added to price pressures. While technical indicators show bearish trends, oversold signals may suggest short-term corrections, especially as traders monitor demand from key import regions.

The wheat market’s technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with the RSI, MACD, and other indicators pointing towards potential further downside. However, oversold signals indicate the possibility of a short-term correction. Moving averages across different time frames consistently reflect bearish sentiment. Pivot points and trend lines indicate that key resistance levels are far above current prices, suggesting further selling opportunities unless a significant market shift occurs.