Grain markets ended the day lower on February 7, 2025, but managed to close the week with gains. Corn and soybeans faced profit-taking and technical selling, with corn closing at $4.87½ per bushel and soybeans at $10.49½ per bushel. Wheat prices also saw a correction, with CBOT wheat closing at $5.82¾ per bushel, though all three wheat classes posted weekly gains. South American weather, a stronger U.S. dollar, and concerns over export demand weighed on prices, while cold weather in the U.S. Plains and Black Sea region raised winterkill concerns for wheat.
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In this edition:
Harvest Headlines: Events impacting crop prices.
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Market Overview
Harvest Headlines
Corn Market Highlights:
Profit-Taking and Technical Selling: Corn prices fell by 7¾¢ to $4.87½ per bushel on Friday, driven by profit-taking and technical selling. Despite the daily decline, corn managed to close the week 5¼¢ higher, supported by solid export, feed, and fuel demand.
South American Weather: Weather in Argentina and Brazil remains a key focus. Argentina’s corn crop ratings worsened, with 26% now rated poor, up from 15% last year. Brazil’s second corn crop planting is delayed due to slow soybean harvest progress, which could push planting past the optimal window.
Export Demand: U.S. corn exports remain strong, with Mexico as the top buyer, purchasing 260,000 metric tons in the latest USDA report. However, the U.S. corn premium over South American supplies is limiting additional export opportunities.
USDA Report Expectations: Traders are anticipating the February 11 USDA WASDE report, with expectations of slight declines in U.S. ending stocks. However, any significant adjustments to South American production may be delayed until March.
Ethanol Production: Brazil’s ethanol plants are coming online, with forecasts of higher production. This could tighten global corn supplies further, especially if Brazil’s safrinha corn crop falls below 125 million metric tons.
Soybeans Market Highlights:
Profit-Taking and Weather Concerns: Soybeans closed 11¢ lower at $10.49½ per bushel on Friday, but still ended the week 7½¢ higher. Profit-taking and improved weather forecasts for Argentina and Brazil weighed on prices, though concerns over delayed harvests in Brazil remain.
Brazil’s Record Crop: Brazil’s soybean production estimates were raised to 174.9 million metric tons, well above the USDA’s forecast of 169 million metric tons. However, January exports were down 62% year-over-year, reflecting slower harvest progress.
Argentina’s Crop Struggles: Argentina’s soybean crop ratings fell to 17% good/excellent, with 32% rated poor. Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist, though some relief from rain and cooler temperatures is forecast for mid-February.
Export Premiums: U.S. soybeans remain at a significant premium to South American supplies, stifling export demand. China’s retaliatory tariffs, set to take effect on February 10, do not include soybeans, but future rounds could expand the scope.
USDA and CONAB Reports: Traders are awaiting the February 11 USDA WASDE report and CONAB’s updated projections for Brazil on February 13. While South American production is expected to be record-large, any downward adjustments could provide support to prices.
Wheat Market Highlights:
Cold Weather Concerns: Wheat prices closed lower on Friday, with CBOT wheat down 5¢ at $5.82¾ per bushel, but still posted weekly gains. Cold temperatures in the U.S. Plains and Black Sea region raised concerns about winterkill, especially in areas with little snow cover.
Black Sea Export Risks: A strong cold outbreak is expected in Russia between February 16-20, which could impact winter wheat crops. Slower exports from the Black Sea region could boost demand for U.S. wheat, but this depends on the dollar’s strength and global shipment speeds.
European Crop Concerns: Matif wheat futures rallied due to concerns about dry conditions in Western Europe and reluctant farmer selling. This could tighten global wheat supplies and support U.S. export demand.
India’s Weather: India remains warm and dry, adding to global wheat supply concerns. China has also delayed or redirected 600,000 metric tons of wheat imports, which could shift demand to other origins.
USDA Report Expectations: The trade expects the February 11 USDA WASDE report to show slight declines in U.S. wheat ending stocks. Mexico remains a key buyer of U.S. wheat, alongside corn and soybeans.
This week’s markets were driven by weather concerns, export dynamics, and anticipation of upcoming USDA and CONAB reports. While prices faced daily pressure, weekly gains reflect underlying support from global supply uncertainties and strong demand.
Extended Commentary
Grain markets faced mixed sentiment, with profit-taking and technical selling pressuring prices on February 7, yet weekly gains reflected underlying support from export demand and weather concerns. Corn futures ended lower but maintained a weekly increase as strong U.S. exports, particularly to Mexico, provided stability, though the premium over South American supplies limited additional demand. Brazil's delayed soybean harvest is causing a late start to its second corn crop planting, raising concerns about production risks if planting extends beyond the optimal window. Meanwhile, soybean futures also saw a pullback despite a weekly advance, as Brazil's record crop estimates and slow exports created market uncertainty. Argentina’s struggling soybean crop and ongoing dryness heightened concerns, though improved weather forecasts offered slight relief. The wheat market experienced a correction but held onto weekly gains as cold temperatures in the U.S. Plains and Black Sea region raised winterkill risks, with potential supply constraints supporting prices.
Looking ahead, traders are awaiting the February 11 USDA WASDE report and the February 13 CONAB update, both of which could drive market direction. Any revisions to South American production estimates—particularly in Brazil’s safrinha corn crop or Argentina’s soybean yields—could shift price sentiment. Wheat traders are monitoring global weather risks, including Russia’s upcoming cold snap and dry conditions in Europe and India, which may tighten global supplies. The broader market remains focused on evolving export dynamics, shifting weather patterns, and upcoming supply reports that could provide further clarity on production outlooks and price trends.
