Grain markets saw a mixed to lower close on Tuesday, with corn, soybeans, and wheat all experiencing downward pressure. Corn futures fell nearly 8¢, driven by profit-taking and technical selling following a neutral USDA WASDE report that left U.S. ending stocks unchanged. Soybeans also closed lower, with prices down 6¢, as traders focused on improving weather in Argentina and a lack of significant changes in the USDA report. Wheat futures were down across the board, with modest reductions in ending stocks failing to spark a rally, as declining corn and soybean prices added further pressure.
Ag Market Insights is dedicated to bringing you timely information to help you consistently get the most money for your crops. Our team painstakingly goes through mountains of information and data and distills insights into a format that you can consume in a few minutes.
In this edition:
Harvest Headlines: Events impacting crop prices.
Technical Analysis: Price projections for wheat based on our technical analysis.
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Market Overview
Harvest Headlines
Corn Market Highlights:
USDA WASDE Report Neutral for Corn: The USDA left 2024/25 U.S. corn ending stocks unchanged at 1.540 billion bushels, defying expectations for a 15 million bushel drop. This lack of adjustment led to long liquidation and pressured prices lower.
South American Production Cuts: The USDA reduced Argentina and Brazil’s corn production estimates by 1 million metric tons each, but this was not enough to offset the bearish sentiment from unchanged U.S. stocks.
Ethanol Demand in Focus: The market is awaiting the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production report, which could provide insight into domestic demand.
Brazil’s Harvest Progress: AgRural reported that 18% of Brazil’s first corn crop has been harvested, with 20% of the second crop planted. Weather conditions in South America remain a key focus for traders.
Export Adjustments: The USDA lowered Brazil and Ukraine’s corn export projections, while China’s import estimate was reduced to 10 million metric tons, adding to the bearish tone.
Technical Selling: March corn futures failed to hold above key support levels, closing at $4.84, down 7.5¢, with further downside risk if support levels are breached.
Soybeans Market Highlights:
USDA Leaves U.S. Soybean Stocks Unchanged: The USDA maintained 2024/25 U.S. soybean ending stocks at 380 million bushels, in line with expectations, but the lack of bullish news led to profit-taking.
Argentina’s Production Cut: The USDA lowered Argentina’s soybean production estimate by 3 million metric tons, while Brazil’s production was left unchanged at 169 million metric tons.
Brazil’s Harvest Progress: AgRural reported that 15% of Brazil’s soybean crop has been harvested, lagging behind last year’s pace of 23%. Weather in Brazil remains favorable for harvest and second-crop corn planting.
China’s Imports Steady: The USDA held China’s soybean import estimate at 109 million metric tons, providing some stability to the global demand outlook.
Soybean Product Spreads Adjust: Soybean meal closed lower, while soybean oil rebounded, supported by higher palm oil prices. The USDA made no changes to the domestic balance sheet for soybean products.
Technical Pressure: March soybean futures closed at 10.43½, down 6¢, with prices struggling to break away from the 10.43½, down 6¢, with prices struggling to break away from the 10.50 level amid a lack of fresh bullish catalysts.
Wheat Market Highlights:
USDA Trims U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks: The USDA lowered 2024/25 U.S. wheat ending stocks by 4 million bushels to 794 million, driven by increased food use, but this failed to support prices.
Global Wheat Stocks Tighten: Global wheat stocks were cut by 1.2 million metric tons to 257.6 million, the lowest in nine years, but this was overshadowed by declining corn and soybean prices.
Export Adjustments: The USDA reduced export estimates for the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine, while raising Argentina’s production slightly.
China’s Imports Cut: China’s wheat import estimate was reduced by 2.5 million metric tons to 8 million, reflecting weaker demand from the world’s largest wheat holder.
France Increases Wheat Area Estimate: France’s farm ministry raised its estimate of winter soft wheat area for the 2025 harvest, adding to the global supply outlook.
Technical Selling Pressure: March CBOT wheat closed at $5.77, down 2.5¢, with prices weighed down by broader grain market weakness and a lack of fresh bullish news.
Russia’s Export Quota: Russia’s grain export quota of 10.6 million metric tons goes into effect on February 15, adding uncertainty to global wheat trade flows.
Technical Analysis of Wheat Prices
The technical outlook for wheat futures as of February 11, 2025, is cautiously optimistic. While most indicators and moving averages support a continuation of the uptrend, overbought oscillators warn of a possible short-term pullback. Traders and farmers should:
Monitor Resistance: Watch for a decisive break above 581.4.
Watch Support: Be alert if prices drop below 578.9, which may signal further weakness.
Overall, the current setup favors a modest rally if buying momentum persists, but caution is advised given the technical signals that hint at a near-term correction.
Market Overview
Wheat is trading near its daily pivot at approximately 579.9, indicating that the market is consolidating in a tight range. While the majority of short- and medium-term moving averages point to bullish momentum, a few oscillators (especially the StochRSI and Williams %R) are flagging overbought conditions. This creates a mixed picture, with strong underlying strength counterbalanced by caution for a potential short-term pullback.
Key Technical Indicators
RSI (14): 54.33
Status: Neutral – no extreme conditions.StochRSI (14): 100
Status: Overbought – suggests potential for a short-term correction.MACD (12,26): -0.59
Status: Slight bearish hint, though overall momentum remains supported by other indicators.ADX (14): 25.98
Status: Indicates a developing trend; not yet overwhelmingly strong.Williams %R: -12.5
Status: In the overbought zone, reinforcing caution.CCI (14): 181.98
Status: High, indicating strong upward momentum.ATR (14): 1.23
Status: Low volatility; any breakout may be measured.Ultimate Oscillator: 59.72
Status: Buy-biased.Rate of Change (ROC): 0.432
Status: Supports a buying bias.Bull/Bear Power (13): 2.52
Status: Bullish signal.
Moving Averages
Most moving averages are showing a bullish tilt:
MA5: 579.56 – Buy
MA10: 579.04 – Buy
MA20: 579.39 – Buy
MA100: 579.58 – Buy
MA200: 570.07 – Buy
Note: The MA50 is at 581.59, which is giving a sell signal. This divergence may indicate very short-term weakness, but the overall moving average picture remains supportive of the bulls.
Pivot Points and Key Price Levels
Using classic pivot point calculations, the key levels for the day are as follows:
Pivot Point: 579.9
Resistance Levels:
R1: 581.4
R2: 582.4
R3: 583.9
Support Levels:
S1: 578.9
S2: 577.4
S3: 576.4
Analysis & Outlook
Bullish Bias:
The preponderance of moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA100, and MA200) combined with supportive indicators (CCI, Ultimate Oscillator, ROC, and Bull/Bear Power) suggest that buyers remain in control. A breakout above R1 (581.4) could pave the way for further gains toward R2 (582.4) and R3 (583.9).Cautionary Signals:
Overbought signals from the StochRSI (100) and Williams %R (-12.5) imply that the recent upward move may have reached an extreme, and a short-term pullback is possible if momentum fades.Risk Management:
Upside: A strong move above 581.4 is key. Traders should monitor if the price can sustain above this level to validate further bullish momentum.
Downside: If the price fails to hold the pivot and drops below S1 (578.9), expect a retest of S2 (577.4) and possibly S3 (576.4).
Extended Commentary
Grain markets struggled on Tuesday as traders reacted to a USDA report that left U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks unchanged, offering little bullish momentum. Corn futures dropped nearly 8¢ as technical selling and long liquidation took hold, despite minor cuts to South American production. Soybeans followed a similar path, closing 6¢ lower, with improved Argentine weather and steady Chinese import estimates weighing on sentiment. Wheat futures declined across the board, with the USDA’s modest reduction in U.S. ending stocks failing to offset the broader bearish tone from falling corn and soybean prices.
Wheat’s global outlook remains mixed, with stocks reaching a nine-year low at 257.6 MMT, yet lower Chinese import estimates and an expanded French wheat area added pressure. Technical indicators suggest cautious optimism, with wheat futures hovering near key resistance at $5.81½, though overbought signals hint at a possible pullback. Meanwhile, traders are watching ethanol demand data for fresh direction in the corn market, while South American harvest progress remains a key driver for soybeans. Without a significant shift in fundamentals, grains may remain rangebound, with technical factors and external demand shaping near-term price action.
