Grain markets saw modest gains on February 18, 2025, with corn, soybeans, and wheat all closing higher. Corn prices surged, with March futures closing above $5 per bushel for the first time since October 2023, driven by strong export inspections and technical buying. Soybeans also saw gains, supported by spillover strength from corn and wheat, despite a decline in export inspections. Wheat prices rose due to winterkill concerns in the U.S. and Russia, with traders closely monitoring weather risks and export demand.
Ag Market Insights is dedicated to bringing you timely information to help you consistently get the most money for your crops. Our team painstakingly goes through mountains of information and data and distills insights into a format that you can consume in a few minutes.
In this edition:
Harvest Headlines: Events impacting crop prices.
Technical Analysis: Price projections for corn based on our technical analysis
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Market Overview
Harvest Headlines
Corn Market Highlights:
Corn Export Inspections Surge: Corn export inspections hit 63.4 million bushels for the week ending February 13, beating estimates, with Mexico leading at 18 million bushels. Cumulative exports for 2024/25 are ahead of last year at 908.6 million bushels.
March Corn Closes Above 5: March corn futures rose 5¾¢ to close at 5∗∗ : March corn futures rose 5¾¢ to close at 5.02 per bushel, the first close above 5 since October 2023. May futures gained 7¢to 5 since October 2023. May futures gained 7¢ to 5.15¾, fueled by technical buying and export optimism.
Taiwan Issues Corn Tender: Taiwan issued an international tender to purchase 2.6 million bushels of animal feed corn, with sourcing options from the U.S., South America, or South Africa. The tender closes on February 19, adding to global demand for U.S. corn.
EU Corn Imports Rise: EU corn imports for the 2024/25 marketing year are up 7% compared to last year, reaching 507.9 million bushels through February 16. The U.S., Ukraine, and Brazil are among the top suppliers, reflecting strong international demand.
Second Crop Planting Delays in Brazil: Brazil’s second corn crop planting is progressing slowly due to delays in soybean harvesting, with only 36% of the estimated area planted as of February 13. This could impact the supply outlook for the coming months.
Soybeans Market Highlights:
Soybean Export Inspections Decline: Soybean export inspections fell to 26.5 million bushels for the week ending February 13, below analyst estimates. China remained the top destination with 7.7 million bushels, but overall demand has been impacted by Brazil’s price advantage.
March Soybeans Gain Modestly: March soybean futures closed at 10.38½ per bushel, up2¼¢, while May futures rose 2¾¢ to 10.38½ per bushel, up 2¼¢, while May futures rose 2¾¢ to 10.55½. Prices were supported by spillover strength from corn and wheat, despite weaker export data.
Brazil Soybean Harvest Progresses: Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 23% completion as of February 13, up from 15% the previous week but still behind last year’s pace of 32%. Delays in harvesting are affecting second corn crop planting, which is only 36% complete.
NOPA Crush Report: The National Oilseed Processors Association reported a January soybean crush of 200.383 million bushels, down 3% from December’s record but still up 7.9% year-over-year. Soyoil stocks reached a six-month high of 1.274 billion pounds.
EU Soybean Imports Increase: EU soybean imports for the 2024/25 marketing year are up 11% compared to last year, reaching 316.7 million bushels through February 16. The U.S. and Brazil are the top suppliers, reflecting steady demand.
Wheat Market Highlights:
Winterkill Concerns Boost Wheat Prices: Below-normal temperatures in the U.S. and Russia raised concerns about potential winterkill damage to wheat crops, leading to technical buying. March Chicago SRW wheat futures rose 6.5¢ to 6.0650, while March Kansas City HRW futures gained 7¢ to 6.0650, while March Kansas City HRW futures gained 7¢ to 6.2825.
Wheat Export Inspections Decline: Wheat export inspections fell to 9.2 million bushels for the week ending February 13, below analyst estimates. Mexico was the top destination with 2.5 million bushels, but overall demand remains inconsistent.
Russia’s Export Quota Impact: Russia’s wheat export quota, which took effect on February 15, has tightened supplies and pushed prices higher. Exporters are seeking higher FOB prices to maintain margins, with March FOB prices for 12.5% protein wheat reaching $247 per metric ton.
Saudi Arabia Purchases Wheat: Saudi Arabia purchased 33.8 million bushels of wheat in an international tender, primarily sourced from the Black Sea region. The grain is for shipment between May and July, reflecting ongoing global demand.
Japan Issues Wheat Tender: Japan issued a tender to purchase 3.5 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada, and Australia, with 36% expected to come from the U.S. The tender closes on February 20, adding to global wheat demand.
Technical Analysis - Corn
Corn Cash, ZCY00
The corn market is in a bullish phase, with prices trading near a critical 52‑week high at 493‑4. While the momentum remains strong—as evidenced by the recent price gains and the moderate buy signal—a breakout above this resistance is necessary for further bullish moves. Conversely, failure to surpass 493‑4 could lead to a retracement, with the Fibonacci levels (445‑1, 430‑1, and 415‑1) serving as key support areas. In this environment, it is essential to closely monitor these levels and adjust risk management strategies accordingly.
Farmers should consider the potential for both continued upward movement and short‑term corrections, ensuring that decisions align with their overall market outlook and risk tolerance.
Price Overview
Current Price: Trading at approximately 491‑2.
Recent Performance: Over the past month, the contract has rallied by about +4.52%, and over the past three months, it’s advanced roughly +17.66% from lows around 416‑6. The 52‑week low was 366‑6, while the 52‑week high is at 493‑4. The current price is very near this yearly peak.
Key Technical Indicators
Price Action & Momentum:
Uptrend Strength: The strong rally from the 3‑month low to the current price indicates robust bullish momentum. Trading near the 52‑week high suggests that buyers have been active and the market sentiment remains positive.
Buy Signal: The technical setup shows a buy signal, although its strength is moderate. This implies that while the trend is bullish, caution is advised, given that the price is approaching a critical resistance area.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels (drawn from the 52‑week range):
61.8% Retracement: Approximately 445‑1.
50% Retracement: Around 430‑1.
38.2% Retracement: Near 415‑1.
These levels can serve as potential support zones should the market retrace from its current highs.
Resistance & Support Levels:
Resistance: The 52‑week high at 493‑4 is the immediate resistance. A sustained move above this level could open the door for further bullish moves, potentially targeting the mid‑500 range.
Confluence Zone: The current price of 491‑2 acts as a pivot, serving as both immediate support and resistance. A failure to break above the 493‑4 barrier might lead to a pullback toward this level.
Additional Supports: In the event of a correction, the Fibonacci levels at 445‑1 (61.8%), 430‑1 (50%), and 415‑1 (38.2%) should be closely watched as key support areas.
Technical Analysis & Outlook
The current setup reflects a market that is very near its 52‑week highs, signaling that bullish momentum has pushed prices to the upper end of the recent range. Here’s what to consider going forward:
Bullish Breakout Scenario:
If the price manages to break and hold above the 52‑week high of 493‑4, this breakout would likely confirm continued bullish momentum. In that case, traders might expect further advances into the mid‑500 territory, with potential new highs as buyers step in aggressively.Consolidation/Correction Scenario:
Should the price fail to clear the 493‑4 resistance, the near‑term support at 491‑2 may begin to test the next set of Fibonacci levels. A pullback toward 445‑1 or lower could signal profit-taking or a short‑term correction. In this scenario, the retracement levels (445‑1, 430‑1, and 415‑1) offer logical targets for support, and any break below these could be a sign of weakening momentum.
Risk Management:
Given the current position near the yearly high, maintaining tight stops near key support levels (especially around the 491‑2 zone) is advisable. Farmers and other market participants should be prepared for potential volatility, as the market may oscillate before a clear directional move is established.
Extended Commentary
Grain markets advanced on February 18, with corn surpassing $5 per bushel for the first time since 2023, supported by strong export inspections and technical buying. Corn export inspections exceeded expectations at 63.4 million bushels, with Mexico leading purchases, while Taiwan’s tender and rising EU imports added to global demand. However, delays in Brazil’s second crop planting, caused by a sluggish soybean harvest, could tighten future supplies.
Soybeans edged higher despite weaker export inspections, as spillover support from corn and wheat offset pressure from Brazil’s competitive pricing. The Brazilian soybean harvest reached 23% completion, still trailing last year’s pace, delaying second-crop corn planting. Meanwhile, the NOPA crush report showed a slight month-over-month decline but remained 7.9% above last year, reflecting steady processing demand.
Wheat prices climbed on winterkill concerns in the U.S. and Russia, with traders monitoring potential crop damage. Declining export inspections and Russia’s newly imposed export quota limited available global supplies, driving price gains. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Japan issued wheat tenders, adding to international demand. With continued weather risks and shifting export dynamics, markets remain volatile as traders assess supply conditions in the coming weeks.
