Grain markets experienced mixed movements today, with corn and soybeans seeing moderate declines, while wheat faced sharper losses due to profit-taking and a stronger U.S. dollar. Corn prices dipped slightly but remain near 16-month highs, supported by strong export demand and tight global supplies. Soybeans were pressured by profit-taking and concerns over Brazil's record harvest, though meal prices held steady. Wheat prices fell as traders assessed potential winterkill damage in the U.S. and monitored global supply dynamics, including Russia's export cap and favorable conditions in Argentina and Australia.
Ag Market Insights is dedicated to bringing you timely information to help you consistently get the most money for your crops. Our team painstakingly goes through mountains of information and data and distills insights into a format that you can consume in a few minutes.
In this edition:
Harvest Headlines: Events impacting crop prices.
Technical Analysis: Price projections for soybeans based on our technical analysis
A short message from Hanson Financial Group
Unlock Flexible Financing for Your Farm
Timing is everything in farming—don’t let cash flow hold you back. With our securities-backed lending, you can access capital when you need it without credit checks or disrupting your investments.
✅ Rates as low as 5%.
✅ Use funds for any purpose – equipment, expansion, or operational costs
✅ Flexible repayment – align with your harvest cycles
✅ Quick funding – access capital in just two weeks
✅ Tax advantages – keep your investments working for you
Get the financial flexibility to grow your farm without the stress. Contact our agricultural lending specialists today and see how a securities-backed line of credit can work for you!
Market Overview
Harvest Headlines
Corn Market Highlights:
Strong Export Demand: U.S. corn export inspections reached a marketing year high of 1.611 million metric tons, up 19% from the previous week, with Mexico being the top destination. This robust demand is supporting prices near 16-month highs.
Brazilian Planting Delays: Wet conditions in Brazil are slowing second-crop corn planting, particularly in regions like Paraná, São Paulo, and Minas Gerais. This could impact global supply later in the year.
Argentina Weather Relief: Recent rains in Argentina have provided some relief to dry conditions, but central and northern growing areas may face renewed dryness in the next 7-10 days, potentially affecting crop development.
Ethanol Production: U.S. ethanol production is expected to decline slightly this week, with estimates ranging from 309-317 million gallons, down from 318 million last week. This could weigh on domestic corn demand.
Farmer Selling Pressure: Increased farmer selling has weakened corn spreads, with March/May futures hitting a new low at $0.14 ¾. This selling pressure is capping price gains despite strong export demand.
Soybeans Market Highlights:
Brazil’s Record Harvest: Brazil’s soybean harvest is progressing rapidly, with 40% of the crop harvested in Paraná. However, yields are mixed, with some regions reporting above-average results while others face sub-optimal conditions.
Biodiesel Blend Decision: Brazil decided to maintain its mandatory biodiesel blend at 14% instead of increasing it to 15%, which could reduce demand for soybean oil and weigh on prices.
NOPA Crush Report: The January NOPA crush came in at 200.383 million bushels, the second-highest on record but below expectations. Soyoil stocks rose to a six-month high, indicating ample supplies.
Argentina Yield Concerns: Argentina’s soybean yield estimates have been reduced due to January’s drought, with production now expected at 16.5 million tons, down from earlier forecasts of 19.2 million tons.
Export Inspections Decline: U.S. soybean export inspections fell 34% week-over-week to 720,332 metric tons, with China accounting for 210,000 tons. This slowdown in exports is adding pressure to prices.
Wheat Market Highlights:
Winterkill Concerns: Sub-zero temperatures in the U.S. Plains raised concerns about winterkill damage, particularly in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. However, snow cover is providing some protection, and the full extent of damage won’t be known until spring.
Profit-Taking and Dollar Strength: Wheat prices fell sharply as traders took profits and the stronger U.S. dollar made exports less competitive. Chicago SRW wheat dropped 11¼¢, while KC HRW wheat fell 13¢.
Global Supply Dynamics: Russia’s wheat export cap of 8.1 million metric tons for the season is tightening global supplies, but larger crops in Argentina and Australia could offset some of this impact.
Bangladesh Tender: Bangladesh’s wheat tender received a lowest offer of $295/mt CFR, but no purchase was finalized. This reflects cautious buying behavior amid global price volatility.
Texas Crop Conditions: Texas winter wheat conditions declined, with only 33% rated good/excellent, down 3 percentage points from the previous week. Poor ratings rose to 24%, highlighting crop stress
Soybean Technical Analysis
At the moment, soybeans are consolidating near 1005, with price action showing limited bullish strength.
The relatively narrow range of the past month, combined with the weak sell signal, suggests that buyers need to assert themselves to break the key resistance at 1041.
A breakout above 1041 would indicate renewed buying interest and could drive prices toward the higher Fibonacci targets (1075 and 1109). Conversely, failure to breach resistance may result in a pullback toward the established support levels.
Given these factors, the market appears range-bound at present, and traders should watch for a decisive move either upward through resistance or downward through support to help clarify the near-term trend.
Overall, while there is potential for a bullish rally if resistance at 1041 is overcome, the current technical indicators point to caution, with the possibility of a further decline if sellers take control.
Current Price & Range
The soybean cash price is currently at 1005 (cents per bushel).
Over the past month, prices have ranged from about 994 to 1042. In the three‐month period, the low was around 930, and the high reached 1042, while the 52‐week range spans from 930 up to 1221. This places the current price in the lower mid-range of recent activity.
Key Technical Indicators
Fibonacci Levels:
The 38.2% retracement level is at approximately 1041, serving as the first major resistance.
The 50% level is around 1075, a secondary resistance zone.
The 61.8% level comes in near 1109, which would be a key target if an upward move gains momentum.
Trading Signal:
A weak “Sell Signal” from the proprietary trading guide suggests that current momentum is modestly bearish, meaning that sellers are starting to take control.
Support and Resistance Levels to Watch
Immediate Support:
If the price declines, the immediate support is near the current trading level (around 1005), with the 1‑month low at approximately 994 acting as the next cushion. A break below these levels could push prices closer to the 52‑week low of 930.
Immediate Resistance:
The first resistance to overcome is the Fibonacci 38.2% level at about 1041. A sustained move above 1041 could unlock further gains toward the 1075 and 1109 levels.
Extended Commentary
Grain markets experienced mixed movements on February 20, with corn and soybeans posting moderate declines while wheat saw sharper losses amid profit-taking and a stronger U.S. dollar. Despite the pullback, corn remains near 16-month highs, driven by robust export demand and tightening global supplies. U.S. corn export inspections hit a marketing year high of 1.611 million metric tons, with Mexico leading purchases, while wet conditions in Brazil continue to delay second-crop corn planting, potentially impacting global supply. Soybeans weakened as traders locked in profits, with Brazil’s record harvest progressing rapidly but showing mixed yields. U.S. soybean export inspections dropped 34% week-over-week, while Argentina’s soybean yield estimates were lowered due to drought, reducing production forecasts from 19.2 million to 16.5 million tons. Additionally, Brazil’s decision to maintain its biodiesel blend at 14% rather than increasing it to 15% could dampen soybean oil demand.
Wheat faced significant selling pressure as traders took profits, with Chicago SRW wheat dropping 11 1/4 cents and KC HRW wheat down 13 cents. The stronger U.S. dollar further dampened export competitiveness, while concerns over potential winterkill damage in the U.S. Plains kept markets cautious. While sub-zero temperatures posed risks in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, snow cover may have mitigated some damage, though the full impact remains uncertain until spring. Globally, Russia’s wheat export cap tightened supplies, but strong production from Argentina and Australia provided some balance. Meanwhile, Texas winter wheat conditions declined, with only 33% rated good/excellent, highlighting crop stress. In the soybean market, technical indicators suggest range-bound trading, with a breakout above key resistance at 1041 potentially triggering gains toward 1075 and 1109, while failure to breach this level could result in a pullback toward 994. Looking ahead, corn remains supported by firm export demand, while soybeans and wheat navigate supply-side pressures and technical challenges as traders monitor weather and export trends for further market direction.
