Corn and soybeans ended the day with modest gains, supported by technical buying and short covering. Corn prices were buoyed by strong ethanol demand and positive export outlooks, while soybeans found strength in favorable South American weather and potential trade deal optimism with China. Wheat, however, faced downward pressure as concerns over winterkill eased with warmer temperatures expected in the Midwest and Plains.
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In this edition:
Harvest Headlines: Events impacting crop prices.
Technical Analysis: Price projections for wheat based on our technical analysis
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Market Overview
Harvest Headlines
Corn Market Highlights:
Ethanol Demand Supports Corn Prices: Ethanol production rebounded to 1.084 million barrels per day, up 2,000 barrels from the previous week, keeping corn demand strong. Stocks also increased to 26.218 million barrels, indicating steady usage.
Argentina Weather Concerns: Dry and hot conditions in Argentina’s northern growing areas are expected to increase crop stress, potentially impacting global corn supply. However, rain is forecasted for southern regions later in the week.
Global Production Estimates Lowered: The International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its global corn production forecast by 3 million metric tons (mmt) to 1.216 billion tons due to weather-related impacts in South America, though it remains above USDA estimates.
Export Sales Expectations: Weekly export sales for corn are expected to range between 900,000 and 1.6 million metric tons, reflecting strong international demand.
Technical Resistance: March corn futures struggled to break through the 5.00 resistance level, with prices closing modestly higher at 5.00 resistance level, with prices closing modestly higher at 4.98. The market remains range-bound but supported by strong demand fundamentals.
Soybeans Market Highlights:
South American Weather Favorable: Scattered rains in Argentina and favorable harvest conditions in Brazil are supporting soybean prices. Brazil’s harvest is nearing 35% completion, with planting in the north progressing well.
Trade Deal Optimism: President Trump’s comments about a potential trade deal with China provided support to soybean prices, though details remain unclear. This optimism helped offset concerns about competition from Brazilian soybeans.
Global Production Estimates Revised: Agroconsult revised Brazil’s soybean production estimate down by 1.1 mmt to 171.3 mmt, still a record high. The IGC also lowered its global soybean production forecast by 2 mmt to 418 mmt, citing lower output in Argentina and Paraguay.
Soybean Oil Demand: Soybean oil prices rose as India reportedly canceled palm oil purchases in favor of soybean oil due to price competitiveness. This shift in demand provided additional support to the soybean complex.
Technical Support: May soybean futures found support near the 10.20 level, closing at 10.20 level, closing at 10.63. The market remains range-bound, with resistance near the 200-day moving average.
Wheat Market Highlights:
Winterkill Concerns Ease: Warmer temperatures expected in the Midwest and Plains reduced concerns about winterkill damage to wheat crops. This contributed to downward pressure on wheat prices.
Drought Conditions Improve: The USDA reported that 20% of U.S. winter wheat acres are in drought, down 3% from the previous week. However, spring wheat acres in drought remain at 40%, well above last year’s levels.
Global Production Estimates Raised: The IGC raised its global wheat production forecast by 1 mmt to 797 mmt, largely due to higher output in Kazakhstan. This is above the USDA’s February estimate of 794 mmt.
Export Demand Weakens: U.S. wheat faces competition from other exporters, particularly Russia, as the war in Ukraine continues to disrupt global trade flows. This has limited upside potential for U.S. wheat prices.
Technical Resistance: Chicago wheat futures closed lower at 5.85, unable to hold early gains. The market remains under pressure, with resistance near the 5.85, unable to hold early gains. The market remains under pressure, with resistance near the 6.00 level.
Wheat Technical Analysis
The technical picture is mixed but leaning bullish. A break above the 61.8% retracement at 602‑4 would be a strong signal to move higher toward the recent high around 612‑2 and, eventually, test the upper end of the 52‑week range. Conversely, failure to hold above the support at 575‑3 could open the door for a corrective move toward 548‑2. For market participants, watching the 602‑4 resistance level and the 575‑3 support level will be key in anticipating the next move in wheat prices.
The current price is quoted at 599‑4. This price reflects a modest pullback from a recent intraday high of 612‑2 recorded on February 18, 2025, indicating that while bullish momentum has been in play over the past month, there is some short‐term consolidation underway.
Fibonacci retracement levels offer clear guidance:
The 61.8% level is at 602‑4, which is just above the current price. A successful move past this resistance could signal a renewed bullish push.
The 50% retracement is at 575‑3, while the 38.2% level sits at 548‑2. These levels serve as key supports in case the price retraces.
The broader 52‑week range spans from a low of 460‑4 to a high of 690‑2. The recent 1‑month performance shows an increase of around 8.41% from a low of 553‑0 to a high of 612‑2, suggesting that despite short‐term weakness, the overall trend remains positive
A Buy Signal with soft signal strength is currently noted, reinforcing the idea that despite the pullback, buyers are still stepping in. However, the tight clustering of key turning points around the current level (with support and resistance near 599‑4) suggests that the market is in a delicate balance.
Extended Commentary
Corn prices continued their upward momentum, supported by strong ethanol demand and tightening global supplies. Ethanol production rose to 1.084 million barrels per day, boosting domestic corn usage, while international demand remained firm, with weekly export sales expected between 900,000 and 1.6 million metric tons. However, technical resistance near the $5.00 level kept gains in check. Meanwhile, South American weather remains a critical factor, as Argentina’s dry conditions threaten yields, though relief is expected in southern regions. The International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its global corn production estimate by 3 million metric tons to 1.216 billion tons, reinforcing supply concerns. Soybeans saw modest gains, driven by optimism over trade negotiations with China and rising soybean oil demand. India’s shift from palm oil to soybean oil purchases provided additional support, counteracting record Brazilian harvest pressure. The IGC reduced global soybean production estimates by 2 million metric tons, citing lower yields in Argentina and Paraguay.
Wheat markets, however, faced headwinds as winterkill fears eased with improving weather conditions in the Midwest and Plains. The USDA reported a reduction in drought-affected winter wheat acres, though spring wheat remains under pressure. Global supply growth added to bearish sentiment, with the IGC increasing its wheat production forecast to 797 million metric tons, surpassing USDA estimates. U.S. wheat also struggled against strong Russian competition, limiting export potential. Chicago wheat futures closed lower at $5.85, failing to hold early gains, with key resistance near the $6.00 level. Technical indicators suggest a pivotal point for wheat, with Fibonacci retracement levels signaling potential support at $5.75 and upside targets near $6.12 if bullish momentum returns. Traders remain focused on weather patterns, global supply trends, and key price levels to gauge future market direction.
