Agricultural markets faced downward pressure on February 24, 2025, with corn, soybeans, and wheat prices all declining amid shifting global dynamics and improved weather conditions in key producing regions. Corn and soybean prices were weighed down by better-than-expected rainfall in South America and rising U.S.-China trade tensions, while wheat saw losses as a recent arctic blast faded from memory and export demand remained steady but unspectacular. Palm oil’s premium over soft oils continued to influence global vegetable oil trade, impacting soy oil dynamics, as India’s potential import duty hikes loomed on the horizon.
Ag Market Insights is dedicated to bringing you timely information to help you consistently get the most money for your crops. Our team painstakingly goes through mountains of information and data and distills insights into a format that you can consume in a few minutes.
In this edition:
Harvest Headlines: Events impacting crop prices.
Technical Analysis: Price projections for corn based on our technical analysis.
A short message from Hanson Financial Group
Unlock Flexible Financing for Your Farm
Timing is everything in farming—don’t let cash flow hold you back. With our securities-backed lending, you can access capital when you need it without credit checks or disrupting your investments.
✅ Rates as low as 5%.
✅ Use funds for any purpose – equipment, expansion, or operational costs
✅ Flexible repayment – align with your harvest cycles
✅ Quick funding – access capital in just two weeks
✅ Tax advantages – keep your investments working for you
Get the financial flexibility to grow your farm without the stress. Contact our agricultural lending specialists today and see how a securities-backed line of credit can work for you!
Market Overview
Harvest Headlines
Corn Prices: Key Events and Insights
Prices Drop Amid Trade Tensions and Weather Improvements
Corn prices fell 4 to 9 cents on February 24, with most contracts testing two-week lows, driven by heightened U.S.-China trade tensions and rainfall in Argentina. The Trump administration’s threat of a $1 million fee on Chinese vessels at U.S. ports raised concerns about export demand, while waves of rain in Argentina’s southern and central growing regions over the next 7-10 days could ease supply worries, potentially leading to isolated flooding.Export Inspections Disappoint, But Year-to-Date Remains Strong
U.S. corn export inspections hit 45 million bushels, at the low end of expectations, with Mexico taking 11 million bushels as the top buyer. Despite the weekly shortfall, year-to-date inspections reached 1.019 billion bushels, up 32% from last year, outpacing the USDA’s forecast of a 7% increase, signaling robust overall demand.Brazil’s Second Corn Crop Planting Accelerates
Brazil’s second corn plantings surged 28% last week to 64% complete, though still lagging the 73% from a year ago, according to AgRural. This rapid progress means less of the crop will hit its key reproductive stage during the dry season, potentially stabilizing supply expectations and pressuring prices.Analysts Forecast U.S. Corn Acreage Increase for 2025
A Bloomberg survey ahead of the USDA Outlook Forum projects U.S. corn acres rising by nearly 3 million to 93.5 million in 2025. This anticipated expansion reflects optimism about corn’s profitability compared to other crops, despite current price softness, and could bolster future supply outlooks.Funds and Index Positions Reflect Mixed Sentiment
CFTC data showed money managers bought just over 21,000 corn contracts last week, while index funds added nearly 5,000, pushing their long position to 491,000 contracts—nearing a record 504,000. This suggests speculative interest remains high, though broader market pressures capped price gains on February 24.
Soybean Prices: Key Events and Insights
Soybean Complex Declines as Old Crop Leads Losses
Soybean prices dropped 8 to 11 cents, with old crop contracts leading the decline, alongside a $3 drop in soymeal and over 1 cent per pound fall in bean oil spot contracts. Nearby spreads hit new lows, though May 2025 beans held above their monthly low of $10.41¼, reflecting a complex under pressure from global supply shifts and trade concerns.Brazil Harvest Progresses, Production Forecast Trimmed
AgRural reported Brazil’s soybean harvest jumped 16% last week to 39%, nearly matching last year’s 40%, but lowered its production forecast by nearly 3 million metric tons to 168.2 million, slightly below USDA’s 169 million estimate. Rainfall favoring central and west-central Brazil this week may slow harvesting, while hot, dry conditions in east-central and northeastern areas could cap yield potential.U.S. Export Inspections Exceed Expectations
Soybean export inspections reached 32 million bushels, surpassing forecasts and well above the pace needed for USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel target, with China taking 18 million and Mexico 5 million. Year-to-date inspections of 1.355 billion bushels are up 11% from last year, outpacing the USDA’s 8% growth projection, supporting demand optimism despite price drops.India’s Potential Duty Hike Threatens Vegetable Oil Imports
India, the world’s top vegetable oil importer, is likely to raise import duties again to support local oilseed farmers, potentially dampening demand for soy oil and palm oil. With soybean prices 10% below the state-set support price of 4,892 rupees per 100 kg, this move could lift domestic soy prices but reduce U.S. export opportunities, adding bearish pressure.Argentina’s Soybean Recovery Boosts Regional Supply Outlook
After key rains, Argentina’s soybean crop is recovering better than expected, with the Rosario Stock Exchange noting stabilized yield losses and a potential floor of 25 qq/ha for first crop and 14 qq/ha for second crop. This improved outlook, especially in the core zone, may ease global supply concerns, contributing to the day’s price softness
Wheat Prices: Key Events and Insights
Wheat Prices Slide as Weather Normalizes
Wheat prices across all three classes fell 10 to 13 cents on February 24, with the memory of last week’s arctic blast fading as U.S. forecasts predict normal to above-normal temperatures through early March. Limited moisture in the Western Corn Belt and Plains this week, with better prospects in week two, suggests a stable but unexciting growing outlook, pressuring prices.Export Inspections Steady, Year-to-Date Up Strongly
U.S. wheat export inspections hit 14 million bushels, aligning with expectations but below the 16 million needed weekly for USDA’s forecast, with year-to-date totals at 559 million bushels, up 21% from last year. This outpaces the USDA’s 20% growth projection, indicating solid export demand despite the day’s price drop.Funds Reduce Short Positions, Signaling Caution
Money managers bought nearly 32,500 wheat contracts across all classes last week, cutting their net short position to 91,510 contracts—the smallest in three months, per CFTC data. This shift reflects cautious optimism among speculators, though broader market sentiment failed to lift prices on February 24.Russia’s Wheat Export Prices Edge Higher
IKAR reported Russia’s wheat export price rose $4 to $251 per metric ton last week, while SovEcon noted steady wheat exports at 420,000 metric tons despite a slight overall grain export drop. This firmness in Russian pricing could provide a global floor, though it wasn’t enough to counter U.S. market weakness.U.S. Wheat Acreage Expected to Rise Slightly in 2025
The Bloomberg survey projects U.S. wheat acres at 46.7 million in 2025, up 1.3% from last year, suggesting modest growth in planting intentions. This anticipated increase, alongside favorable early March weather, may keep supply expectations ample, contributing to the day’s bearish tone.
Corn Technical Analysis
Key Points
The current corn price on February 24, 2025, is around $4.835 per bushel, based on March 2025 futures data.
It seems likely that the price will test the resistance level at $4.885, with potential to rise further if it breaks through.
The evidence leans toward the price holding above the support level at $4.790, given the long-term upward trend.
Resistance levels to watch include $4.885, $4.945, and a longer-term target at $5.0825 (52-week high).
Current Price and Market Context
As of February 24, 2025, the price for corn, based on March 2025 futures, is approximately $4.835 per bushel. This price reflects recent market activity and is part of a consolidation phase following a significant rise over the past three months. The long-term trend shows a 4.10% increase over the past year, suggesting potential for continued growth, though short-term movements show slight decreases.
Technical Analysis and Predictions
Technical indicators suggest the price is currently between the first resistance level at $4.885 and the first support level at $4.790. If the price breaks above $4.885, it could move toward the second resistance at $4.945 and potentially aim for the 52-week high of $5.0825. Conversely, if it falls below $4.790, it might see a correction to $4.755 or lower. Given the upward trend and the price being above key Fibonacci levels, it seems likely that the price will test the resistance level at $4.885 in the near term.
Resistance Levels to Watch
Farmers should keep an eye on the following resistance levels:
First resistance: $4.885
Second resistance: $4.945
Longer-term target: $5.0825 (52-week high)
Extended Commentary
Corn and soybean prices declined on February 24 as U.S.-China trade tensions and favorable weather conditions in South America pressured markets. The Trump administration's proposed $1 million fee on Chinese vessels raised concerns over future export demand, while Argentina’s expected rainfall over the next week eased supply worries. Despite weaker sentiment, U.S. corn export inspections reached 45 million bushels, keeping year-to-date volumes 32% higher than last year. Brazil’s second corn crop planting accelerated to 64% completion, improving supply prospects. Meanwhile, fund activity reflected mixed sentiment, with money managers adding over 21,000 long positions, though market pressures kept gains in check.
Soybean futures fell as old crop contracts led declines, accompanied by weakness in soymeal and bean oil. Brazil’s harvest progress reached 39%, slightly trailing last year, while AgRural trimmed its production estimate to 168.2 million metric tons, below USDA’s projection. U.S. soybean export inspections exceeded expectations at 32 million bushels, driven by strong demand from China and Mexico. However, India’s potential import duty hike on vegetable oils could dampen global demand for U.S. soyoil, adding further downside pressure. Argentina’s soybean crop showed signs of recovery following beneficial rainfall, stabilizing yield expectations and reinforcing a bearish global supply outlook.
Wheat markets weakened as last week’s arctic blast faded and forecasts turned to normal-to-above-normal temperatures into early March. Prices fell across all three classes, with limited moisture concerns providing little support. Export inspections were steady at 14 million bushels, though slightly below the weekly pace needed for USDA targets, while year-to-date wheat exports remain up 21% from last year. Money managers cut their short positions, signaling caution, but overall market sentiment remained bearish. Russian wheat prices edged up to $251 per metric ton, though the increase was insufficient to support U.S. prices. With U.S. wheat acreage projected to rise by 1.3% in 2025, supply expectations remain ample, adding further weight to prices.
