Corn Prices Close Lower Amid Tariff Talks
Corn prices ended the day slightly down, with May-25 futures slipping $0.01-$0.03, settling off session lows but hitting the lowest level since early February at $4.84. President Trump’s reiteration of a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, set for early March, has injected uncertainty, potentially impacting export competitiveness and regional supply dynamics. Time is running short for negotiations, keeping traders on edge.

US Egg Production Hits Nine-Year Low
January 2025 US egg production fell 4.2% year-over-year to 8.865 billion eggs, the lowest for the month since 2016, driven by a 3.8% drop in layer birds to 363.3 million due to avian influenza. This decline tightens feed demand for corn, a key input, potentially softening prices in the near term. The ripple effect is evident as egg prices soar and supply constraints hit consumers and restaurants alike.

Ethanol Policy Push Gains Traction
The American Petroleum Institute is urging the Trump administration and EPA to expand year-round E15 sales nationwide, beyond the Midwest’s eight states set for April implementation. Ethanol production estimates for last week hover between 310-320 million gallons, steady from 319 million the prior week, signaling stable corn demand from biofuels. A national policy could bolster long-term corn usage, though regional fragmentation worries persist.

EU Corn Imports Rise as Supply Shifts
EU corn imports reached 13.5 million metric tons (mmt) by February 23, up 8% from last year, reflecting stronger demand amid global supply adjustments. This uptick supports US export prospects, a bright spot for corn prices despite domestic speculative selling, with money managers still holding an estimated 330,000 long contracts. It underscores Europe’s reliance on external sources as local conditions falter.

Brazil’s Weather Impacts Second Corn Crop
Above-normal rainfall in Mato Grosso is slowing Brazil’s soybean harvest and delaying second corn plantings, with only 64% of the Center-South area seeded by February 20, down from 73% last year. This lag could tighten global corn supplies later in 2025, offering potential upside for US prices if Brazilian output falters. Dryness in southern Brazil, however, may aid first-corn harvesting, balancing the outlook

Soybean Prices Stable Despite Mixed Signals
Soybean prices closed nearly unchanged, with March-25 up $0.02 and new crop down $0.01, holding support at the 50-day moving average of $10.37¼ for May-25. Meal rose $2 while oil dipped 25-30 points, reflecting mixed product trends amid steady spreads. Traders are balancing Brazil’s production woes with Argentina’s recovery, keeping prices in a tight range.

Brazil’s Soybean Forecast Trimmed Again
AgRural cut its 2024/25 Brazil soybean crop estimate to 168.2 mmt from 171 mmt, citing drought in southern states like Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, while harvest pace hit 39% by February 20. This follows a 1 mmt reduction by Dr. Cordonnier to 170 mmt, against USDA’s 169 mmt, signaling tightness that’s lifting basis levels, though FOB prices lag US levels by $0.50-$0.60 per bushel. Exports also slowed, with February daily averages 29% below last year at 246,500 metric tons.

Argentina’s Rains Boost Crop Outlook
Heavy rains exceeding 100 mm in Argentina’s core farmland signal an “inflection point” for 2024/25 soybean crops, reversing earlier drought damage, per the Rosario Grains Exchange. Forecasts predict more moisture through late February, potentially lifting the 47.5 mmt harvest estimate if conditions hold. This recovery could pressure global prices, offsetting Brazil’s shortfall.

EU Soy Imports Surge
EU soybean imports hit 8.9 mmt by February 23, up 11% year-over-year, with meal imports jumping 29% to 12.5 mmt, driven by feed demand. This robust uptake supports US export prospects, cushioning domestic prices despite speculative selling in futures markets. It highlights Europe’s growing reliance on imports amid regional production challenges.

US Acreage Expectations Rise
Trade anticipates the USDA Outlook Forum will project a 2.5-3.5 million-acre increase in US soybean plantings for 2025 over 2024, reflecting optimism for demand. Historically, February estimates have overshot March intentions nine times since 2010, suggesting potential for upward revisions. This could ease supply concerns if yields cooperate, though weather remains the wildcard.

Wheat Prices Slide Across All Classes
Wheat prices dropped $0.04-$0.08 across Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis, with May-25 contracts hitting three-week lows before recovering slightly above key moving averages. Chicago held its 100-day MA, while KC bounced from below $6.00, signaling bearish sentiment tied to weak demand and ample supply. Futures remain under pressure as global dynamics dominate.

SovEcon Cuts Russian Export Forecast
SovEcon reduced its 2024/25 Russian wheat export estimate by 0.6 mmt to 42.2 mmt, well below USDA’s 45.5 mmt, reflecting tighter supply expectations from a key player. This downgrade could lift global prices if realized, though EU soft wheat exports lag at 13.7 mmt through February 23, down 36% year-over-year, muting bullish momentum. Jordan’s recent tender pass underscores soft demand.

US Winter Wheat Conditions Mixed
Oklahoma’s winter wheat rating fell 6 points to 34% good/excellent by February 23, while Texas improved 4 points to 37%, per USDA reports. Warm temperatures in the 70s and 80s across the Southern Plains raise concerns about moisture deficits as spring nears. These shifts could influence yield outlooks, with traders watching for weather updates.

Egypt Signals Comfortable Stocks
Egypt’s Supply Minister reported wheat stocks sufficient for five months at 750,000 tons monthly consumption, with a 5 mmt silo capacity, easing import urgency. This stability from a major buyer may cap near-term price gains, though tenders from Algeria and Bangladesh signal ongoing global demand. Total grain use of 20-21 mmt annually keeps Egypt a key market to watch.

Brazil’s Wheat Supply Tightens
Brazil’s high-quality wheat supply is low, driving prices up (e.g., 2% in Paraná wholesale) as buyers turn to imports, with February imports at 265,450 tons, half of last year’s pace. CONAB resumed stock-building with 7,200 tons from Rio Grande do Sul, while a projected 2.1% area drop for 2025 may be offset by higher yields. This tightness could support global prices if import reliance grows.