Grain markets displayed mixed performance with corn and soybeans closing modestly lower due to technical selling and profit-taking ahead of the Good Friday trading pause. Wheat prices showed varied results, with Chicago and Minneapolis contracts slightly up, while Kansas City trended down, influenced by a lack of bullish news and regional weather patterns. Overall, export sales data provided some support, but weather concerns and global supply dynamics kept price movements subdued.
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In this edition:
Harvest Headlines: Events impacting crop prices.
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Market Overview
Harvest Headlines
Corn Price Events
Modest Price Decline: Corn prices fell slightly, with July futures down 1.25 cents to $4.89, driven by technical selling and a lack of fresh bullish news. Despite early gains, a late-session selloff erased momentum, reflecting cautious trading before the holiday closure.
Strong Export Sales: USDA reported 61.9 million bushels in combined old and new crop corn export sales for the week ending April 10, near the high end of expectations. Sales were 39% above the prior four-week average, with Mexico and Japan as top buyers, supporting market sentiment.
Weather Impacts Planting: Forecasts of near-term rain across the Corn Belt, particularly from Texas to Ohio, are likely to delay planting and raise flooding concerns in some areas. However, precipitation is welcome in drier regions, potentially improving soil moisture for future crop development.
Ethanol Production Drop: Weekly ethanol production fell 6.9% from the previous week to 983 million barrels per day, using 97.57 million bushels of corn. This lower-than-needed pace to meet USDA targets added slight bearish pressure to corn prices.
Argentine Harvest Progress: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentina’s corn harvest at 28% complete, up 5% from the prior week, with production estimates steady at 49 million metric tons. Stable harvest progress and slightly improved weather conditions suggest a consistent supply outlook.
Global Production Forecast: The International Grains Council raised its 2025/26 global corn production forecast by 5 million metric tons to 1.274 billion metric tons, citing improvements in the U.S. and sub-Saharan Africa. This increase could temper price gains by signaling ample future supply.
Soybean Price Events
Slight Price Dip: Soybean prices edged lower, with July futures down 3.5 cents to $10.4675, due to profit-taking and technical selling. The market remained choppy, with prices 24 cents above February lows but down significantly from March highs.
Robust Export Sales: Soybean export sales reached 27.1 million bushels for the week ending April 10, up 74% from the prior four-week average, led by Mexico and the Netherlands. Despite cancellations to China and unknown destinations, cumulative sales remain ahead of last year’s pace, offering price support.
Argentine Harvest Delays: Argentina’s soybean harvest is only 5% complete, 26 percentage points behind the usual pace, due to rain delays. Higher-than-expected yields in the “zona nucleo” region provide some optimism, but slow progress may tighten near-term supply.
Brazilian Export Outlook: Abiove raised Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean export forecast by 2.4 million metric tons to 108.5 million metric tons, citing U.S.-China trade tensions. This record-breaking projection, if realized, could pressure U.S. soybean prices by increasing global competition.
Biodiesel Quota Debate: Montana Renewables’ CEO called for doubling U.S. biomass-based diesel quotas to 7.3 billion gallons, far above the current 3.35 billion and trade group recommendations of 5.25 billion. Higher quotas could boost soybean oil demand, potentially supporting prices, though two Iowa biodiesel plants recently idled, signaling capacity concerns.
NOPA Crush Report: The NOPA crush report showed 196.406 million bushels crushed in March, indicating strong domestic demand. However, unexpectedly high soybean oil stocks exerted bearish pressure, contributing to mixed signals in the soybean complex.
Wheat Price Events
Mixed Price Movements: Wheat prices were mixed, with Chicago SRW up 0.25 cents to $5.48, Kansas City HRW down 1.75 cents to $5.5625, and Minneapolis spring wheat up 2.75 cents to $6.0650. Technical maneuvering and a lack of fresh bullish news drove the uneven performance.
Export Sales Data: Wheat export sales totaled 12.9 million bushels for the week ending April 10, with old crop sales slightly above the prior four-week average. New crop sales were strong at 10.1 million bushels, led by the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, providing modest price support.
U.S. Weather Outlook: Forecasted rainfall in the Midwest and Plains will benefit winter and spring wheat, though southern areas like Kansas may miss significant moisture, potentially stressing crops. Wetter conditions in the northern Plains could recharge soil moisture, aiding spring wheat planting.
Russian Production Increase: SovEcon raised its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast by 1.1 million metric tons to 79.7 million metric tons, driven by favorable weather. LSEG Commodities Research estimated 89.8 million metric tons, excluding occupied Ukrainian areas, adding bearish pressure due to increased global supply.
European Export Challenges: FranceAgriMer cut its 2024/25 non-EU soft wheat export forecast to 3.1 million metric tons, down 70% from last season, due to competitive global markets. EU soft wheat exports dropped 35% year-over-year to 16.7 million metric tons, tightening regional supply but not significantly lifting U.S. prices.
Tender Activity: Algeria purchased 600,000-630,000 metric tons of milling wheat, and Tunisia bought 75,000 metric tons of soft wheat in recent tenders. Strong international demand could support U.S. wheat prices if export competitiveness improves.
Extended Commentary
Corn markets showed resilience as strong export sales helped offset bearish pressure from lower ethanol production and rising global supply projections. The USDA reported solid sales near the high end of expectations, with Mexico and Japan leading demand, while weather forecasts signaling planting delays added a short-term bullish undertone. Still, the ethanol slowdown and a 5-million-ton boost in global production from the International Grains Council introduced concerns that may cap upside potential heading into the planting season.
Soybeans faced mixed signals, with futures dipping slightly amid Argentine harvest delays and robust U.S. export sales. Sluggish progress in Argentina's harvest due to rains raised near-term supply concerns, but record export projections from Brazil and elevated soybean oil stocks limited bullish momentum. Domestic demand remained strong, as evidenced by the NOPA crush report, yet uncertainty over biodiesel quota policy and international trade dynamics continues to weigh on sentiment.
Wheat futures posted a mixed finish, with spring wheat leading gains, while Kansas City contracts edged lower without fresh bullish catalysts. Export sales offered modest support alongside continued tender activity from key importers like Algeria and Tunisia. However, rising production estimates from Russia and bearish revisions to European export forecasts underscore the stiff global competition U.S. wheat faces, keeping prices rangebound for now.
